After Crushing Loss, the CDU has only one chance for Survival

Published in The Zeitgeist

This election saw the CDU suffer its largest loss in over a decade. Armin Laschet (depicted above) is being blamed for a large part in the defeat. Photo: Martin Meissner/AP Newsroom

On September 26, 2021, Germany held its highly anticipated federal election following the retirement of the esteemed Chancellor Angela Merkel. Armin Laschet, Merkel's successor as the leader of the centrist Christian Democratic Union (CDU), faced a significant setback as the party lost 50 seats and its majority in the German Bundestag. In the aftermath of this catastrophic defeat, many CDU members immediately called for Laschet's resignation.

Laschet's election as leader in January, just a few months prior, was a contentious affair. The vote was closely contested, with Laschet representing the moderate faction of the CDU in direct opposition to the more right-wing elements within the party. Despite this, with considerable support from Merkel, he secured victory, which was perceived as a triumph for the centrist/Merkelite faction at-large.

However, following the recent election loss, many CDU members are attributing their decline in popularity to the centrist faction itself. They view Laschet's electoral failure as emblematic of a much broader pattern—a failure of the centrist message. With this sentiment prevailing among CDU leadership, it is anticipated that the party will undergo a significant shift towards the right in the coming years.

This emerging right-wing faction within the CDU is exemplified by Markus Söder, the Minister-President of Bavaria and one of Laschet's primary opponents in the leadership election. Despite ultimately losing his bid for leadership, Söder continues to enjoy high approval ratings among party members. His political messaging, centered around pro-family and nationalist policies, coupled with environmental activism, resonated strongly with voters.

While the CDU lost big in every other area around the country, its share of the vote stayed relatively consistent in Bavaria. It seems Söder's messaging not only neutralized the influence of other right-wing parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) but also limited the appeal of the Green Party (Grüne).

Comparing Laschet's electoral defeat with Söder's success, many CDU members are inclined to adopt the Minister-President's regional electoral strategy on a national scale. As the Minister-President of the party's most successful electoral region, Söder's influence within the party is expected to grow, along with the popularity of his merged conservative, Christian, and environmentalist ideology.

The losses in other traditional CDU strongholds like East Germany and Baden-Württemberg underscore the need for a new messaging approach. In East Germany, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) emerged victorious by appealing to older CDU voters with promises of social security reform. Recognizing the conservative leanings of older demographics, the SPD also toned down its left-wing social activism. This shift in voter demographics presents an opportunity for the CDU to reverse the trend by adopting a more conservative messaging approach.

Similarly, in Baden-Württemberg, where the CDU maintained a majority but lost significant votes to the right-wing Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Green Party, Söder's brand of environmentalism and conservatism could prove effective in reclaiming lost ground.

Furthermore, in Saxony, where the CDU has traditionally trailed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), a conservative messaging strategy could help the CDU regain ground and expand its base.

In light of this state-by-state analysis, it is evident that the CDU's best chance of survival lies in moving further to the right.

With the success of Söder's faction in Bavaria, losses to the Greens and FDP in Baden-Württemberg, and the potential for gains in Saxony, a conservative shift is not only feasible but also likely. However, such a move could have significant ramifications, both domestically and internationally. It could fundamentally alter the political landscape in Germany, potentially weakening the country's progressive stance within the European Union and on the global stage.